Bring On the Rays!
Oh, those pesky Rays of Sunshine.
Who would have ever thought that this early September weekday series against the Rays would be one of the toughest tickets in town? And no, its not just becuase the Sox are beating the consecutive sell out record either, which is generally a bad thing for anyone wanting to see a game.
No, this series is important becuase the Sox have the potential to take first place back from Tampa for the first time since June 28. They would need to sweep in order to be in first place at the end of the day on Wednesday, which isn’t necessarily likely, though it remains very possible. Either way, with Tampa coming off a sweep by Toronto to start out their franchise-defining road trip, its looking more and more like they are finally starting the fade that all the experts have been predicting for so long.
Its not really that surprising either. Evan Longoria is looking to be the Rookie of the Year, yet is injured and has missed significant time. Un-retired Troy Percival is feeling his age and in fact blew his first game back since spending time on the DL. BJ Upton is playing with a torn labrum, and the starting pitching that has carried them so far this year is faltering. Its not surprising though, as pretty much all of their starters are either injured or throwing the most innings they ever have before.
Let’s take a look at the 3 starters we’ll be seeing in this series:
Edwin Jackson is just 24 years old (He’ll be 25 tomorrow, the 9th) and has a 4.07 ERA in 159 innings thus far this season. His previous high in IP was 161, which was accomplished last year. Assuming he makes it out of the first inning tonight, he’ll be passing that. He’s struggled lately, recording just 2 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts and hasn’t pitched in to the 8th inning since July 4. He did win 4 out of 5 starts in August, but got shelled by the Yankees last time out giving up 6 earned runs while getting only 10 outs. That game may have just been a fluke of course, but for a guy pitching more than he ever has before, he seems pretty risky. Look for regression from Jackson in September, starting with tonight’s start.
Scott Kazmir will go tomorrow for Tampa, opposing Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kazmir is the definition of a Red Sox killer as he has beaten us consistently over his career. In fact, from 2004-2007 Kazmir compiled a 2.93 ERA against the Sox in 15 starts, though he only won 5 times. In 2008 so far, he’s started twice against the Sox and has been hit well, allowing 7 earned runs in 9 total innings pitched. Granted, the first one of those starts was his first of the year and he was a bit rusty, but either way, the Sox have shown they can hit him this year. He hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 2 starts and has been pitching very well, but the patient hitting of the Sox proves to be a real test. The good news for Rays fans is that he has only thrown 131 innings this year and is probably the best thing they have going right now. Look for a pitcher’s duel in this one.
On Wednesday, Andy Sonnanstine will continue his slow steady decline opposite Josh Beckett. Sonnanstine has been consistently mediocre all year, seeing his ERA move between 4.0 and 5.0 all year. He’s pitched in to the 8th inning just 3 times all year, with 2 of those coming in April. He’s thrown a total of 168 innings thus far this year, after throwing just 130 last year. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (5.4K/9 IP) and is overall, very hittable in that he doesn’t walk a lot either (only 30 BB this year). The Sox haven’t seen him yet this year, though last year he gave up 20 earned runs in 4 starts. Up against Beckett, I wouldn’t be betting on this guy either.
In the end, the Sox look to have the pitching advantage as well as a hot-hitting team. The Sox have scored 49 runs in their 6 September games so far compared to just 21 by the Rays. This is why we are 5-1 this month to the Rays 1-5 record.
This “race” is going to be all but over if the Sox can sweep. But even if we don’t, its just a matter of time becuase once the Red Sox are back on top of the division, its very unlikely they are going to give it back to these Rays of Sunshine.
It all start tonight!
Stumble it!