The First Place Rays (of Sunshine) - Should We Be Worried?
In spite of losing two consecutive 1-run games to the pitching-poor Houston Astros over the weekend and dropping into second place, there have still been quite a few encouraging signs in recent days.
Josh Beckett seems to have regained at least most of the form that made him a 20 game winner last year, going 2-2 and giving up just 13 runs in his last 54 IP (2.16 ERA).
Dustin Pedroia was hitting .260 on June 13 and has since raised his average to .304 by getting 31 hits in the 14 games since. Mike Lowell is hitting his stride as well, and we all know how great JD Drew has been playing this month.
In addition, the pitching problems seem to have subsided and once again, its looking like the Red Sox just might have “too many starters” even without Curt Schilling. After all, Justin Masterson has proven himself to be a (6′ 6″) major league pitcher who can hold his own in a rotation, and Daisuke seems to be throwing well in spite of that 1 inning 7 run hiccup on his initial return from the DL. Combine that with Lester looking like an All Star and Wakefield eating innings, and you start to wonder if we’ll be seeing Clay Buccholtz or Bartolo Colon before September.
Oh yeah, and they also kicked ass in Interleague play again this year going 11-7.
So why is this team in second place? It was very trendy before the season started to pick the Rays to finish third for the first time ever, but everyone who was seriously trying to make a prediction always said the same thing - they’re good but they aren’t the Yankees. Well here we are, past the half way point of the season (Friday night’s game in Houston was game 81, the official half way marker) and the Rays are ahead of both of the teams that they are never supposed to beat.
Its also looking like this team is a legit contender, with a great young roster (I’d take Longoria, Crawford, Kazmir and Upton on my all-decade team in a second) and some actual bullpen strength and leadership (Wheeler-Percival). But are they really a first place team, and a team that is exptected to continue to have the highest winning percentage in Baseball (Yes, today they are at .605 - the only team that has won at least 60% of its games)?
That may seem like somewhat of a rhetorical question, but I assure you it is not, and yes, they really are that good. If this lineup were playing in the Bronx with Yankees uniforms on, everyone would be talking about how great this team is and about how the Yankee dynasty is back. But instead, they are playing in Tampa Bay (St. Petersburg actually) in front of 5,000 Rays fans and 10,000 visiting team fans every night, and just because they are the Rays (of Sunshine; remember, there are no Devils in Florida, he went down to Georgia instead) everyone is writing them off.
But the real question here is, should we be worried? And although the Rays are playing great, I’m not quite picking them as a playoff team yet. They have a lot of young arms that are bound to regress, at least a little, as the season goes on. And the fact of the matter is that they have been somewhat lucky to get into first place by themselves. Its often said in baseball, that current run differentials are a much better predictor of future success than past win-loss records. So if we look at the run differential, the Rays aren’t quite the best team anymore (that in fact goes to the Cubs, who should be the only team with 50 wins at this point).
You can see the X W-L in the MLB standings page so you can examine this yourself. Based on this differential, the Red Sox should have won 49 games to Tampas 46, good for a 1.5 game lead since the Sox have played 3 more times than the Rays (of Sunshine).
So when all is said and done, should we worry about the Rays? Well, yes, at least more than the team that is giving Giese, Ponson, Rasner, Moeller, Betemit, Hawkings, Veras, Christian and Gonzalez regular playing time (hint, they wear pinstripes).
But is this really going to be the year of the Ray in the American League East? I say no, but seeing how they play against each other (and who wins the inevitable fight) in the next 3 days will give us a much better indication than expected wins-losses. After all, they do still have to play the games.
Stumble it!