Uh Oh! Is it 2006 again?
2006 Red Sox: 23-14 on May 16. 2007 Red Sox: 27-12 on May 16
2006 Red Sox: 50-29 on July 2. 2007 Red Sox: 50-31 on July 2
2006 Red Sox: 57-36 on July 19. 2007 Red Sox: 56-38 on July 19
Are we seeing a pattern here? They started just as hot last year, had nearly the same lead on the East at this point (differential of only a couple games). But everyone keeps saying - the pitching is going to save us. As long as the starters stay healthy, we’ll be OK. Well, guess what? We only really have 3 starters right now! Schilling is out indefinitely and Tavarez has given you 100 innings of decent quality, but do you really think he is going to win many more games? Daisuke is great, but is still a rookie. Beckett will continue to amaze, but Beckett alone is not a solid rotation. Plus, he has already missed starts and spent time on the DL this year.
I’m not panicking quite yet, but I do think there is a cause for concern. The reason the Sox are in first place is the over-performance of guys we weren’t expecting it from (Okajima, Youkilis, Cora, Tavarez) and not from the core players (Ortiz, Ramirez, Varitek, Schilling). Normally I would say this is a great position to be in, because averages average out, but this is not yet proving true. Manny and Ortiz are supposed to be carrying the team right now - and they just simply are not.
The Sox are still the favorite, because in the end, good pitching wins, and we have good pitching. But you have to watch out - we are just one or two injuries away from second place.
Stumble it!