Josh Beckett - Then and Now
Josh Beckett is having a huge year thus far. Even after his rough outing last time against Colorado, he still has a 3.39 ERA to go along with his 9 wins. He’s stuck out 68 already and has only given up 5 home runs, which was clearly his trouble area last year. For all of you who gave up on him last year and wanted Anibal Sanchez back, well, HA HA. Hanley Ramirez is great, but Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett have worked out very well thus far.
Let’s take a look at how much better Beckett is this year. All of the stats here are per start averages in order to even the playing field between 1/3 of a season this year and a full season last year.
- Wins: Thus far, he is winning games 33% faster this year. He won about 1 of every 2 starts last year is winning about 3 out of every 4 this year.
- Innings: He is averaging 6.42 IP per game this year vs. 6.19 last year. That is only about 4% better, but still a marked improvement. In the aggregate, assuming 30 starts, that is the equivalent of an extra start (about 7 IP).
- Runs: Teams scored 3.64 runs per game against Beckett last year vs. 2.58 this year. That is a 41% reduction. No wonder he is 9-1.
- Homers: He gave up more than 1 HR per game last year (1.09) and is averaging less than 1 every 2 games this year (.42) - a 62% drop. This has been the key to his season thus far.
- Strikeouts: He is averaging just about 1 more K per appearance this year (5.67 vs. 4.79). When you consider that his IP is still about the same, this is huge. His K/IP ratio is up 15% (.88 vs. .77) and his K/BB ratio has nearly doubled (2.13 vs. 4). This is as much becuase he’s walking less guys (1.42/game vs. 2.24/game) as it is becuase his overall K #s are up.
- Batting Average: Batters are hitting 18 point lower against Beckett this year. Lowering your BAA and lowering your walk totals is very impressive. Usually, more strikes means more hits (See Curt Schilling). His WHIP has dropped from 1.29 to a nearly unbelievable 1.08 (16% better)
Overall, its been a great year for Beckett. In my opinion, the key is that he is throwing his curve ball for strikes. There was talk of him tipping his pitches last year - but I don’t buy it. He didn’t need to tip his pitches becuase hitters knew to only swing at the fastball. Any time he didn’t locate perfectly, he got rocked. This year, the patient hitter ends up with 2 strikes on him rather than finding himself in a hitters count becuase the curve ball is a strike. The difference between 2-1 count and 1-2 count is huge, and I would say that is the secret to his success.
The real question is if he can keep it up - word is going to get out that he is throwing more strikes and as hitters become more aggressive, they should start to look better. Watch out for Jeff Franceour tonight - he’s a first pitch fast ball hitter. Watch to see if Beckett throws a breaking ball first pitch to him - if I were calling the game, I would.
Stumble it!